赌博靠运气的话你是没办法赚钱的,但至少在4种赌博方式中是有方法让你确实赢钱的。而其中的三种在大部分的赌场都有,而第四种在生活中到处都是。尽管大部分理解概率的人没有期望通过赌博发大财--但是如果你能明白这游戏中的概率的话,这将变得更加有趣。
扑克牌
赌博的制胜之法就是概率。在玩扑克的时候,在你的赢面较大时赌大一点,而在输的时候尽量输少点。这不仅仅要看你手上的牌,还需要计算“成败比”--牌面情况,加之你能赢的钱数,你已经下的注。由于运气只是一个短期的波动,所以尽量多玩几局,技术流多玩才能赢。会心理学的人玩扑克有先天的优势,而其他玩家可不会为了玩牌而认真学习心理学。
二十一点
理论上来说,你可以记下桌上所有被出过的牌(也有可能是四副,取决于赌场的设置)从而得到一些帮助。桌上剩下的10点,人头牌(应该是J,Q,K),A越多,你赢的概率就越大。一位统计学赌博专家Robert Hannum,通过这种方法得到了1%的利润,这意味着你每赌100美元,你可以获得1美元的回馈。是的,当赌场发现你赢了太多之后,除了把你踢出去之外啥都不能做。但是总的来说他们还是喜欢这样的,因为已有太多了人想通过记牌来玩并失败了。
体育博彩
这是又一个“赢马又赢钱,你最爱的工作”。经常的有赌马结果泄漏,比赛比分出错的情况发生,但是却没人注意到。与扑克,21点灯不同,股票有外部作用的方式,数学模型的作用非常有限。比赛内赌博的出现让这整个过程的数学模型更加复杂。
在知道概率之后,特别是整体赌场优势之后,能帮助你计算你的钱能玩多长时间。这也会让你冥思苦想,为啥会有人会这样几乎是浪费钱。美国游戏联合会将21点的赌场优势设置在0.5%到1.5%之间,这意味着你每赌100美金,你就要输500美分到1.5美元。这可以玩很长一段时间。而从令一个角度来看,基诺的赌场优势是30%(译者注,不知道基诺是什么的可以点这看看),所以你每玩100美金就得失去30美金。
彩票
全国41个州和哥伦比亚地区有彩票业务。这是唯一种可以让基诺看起来是一个不错的赌博方式的玩法。在2006年只有马萨诸塞州的实际赌场优势比基诺的30%低(它是28.1%)。而排行第十的德克萨斯州,保持在40%。通过比较,传统的非法博彩的赢取几率是1/1000,而返还金额在600倍到800倍之间。当然这其中还不用交税。所以这种方式还有巨大的市场。“比暴徒还要差劲”,这样是不会被认可的。
老虎机
科技对老虎机的影响比其他游戏都要大。电脑芯片替代传统的机械齿轮意味着赌场主能提供包括对角赢法在内的多种发杂游戏方式,赌资和奖励变化。当然,这其中最为原始的概率还是没有变化的,与所有机械类的赌博方式一样都是赌场受益的。尽管电子扑克机比大面额的老虎机出钱情况要稍许好一些。这其中的赌场优势在0.5%到12%之间变化。
玩一次老虎机应该输掉多少钱,称之为“保留”,而这是由州政府规定的。但是赌场有权利让它吐的更多。研究院David Schwarts透露,目前康乃迪克州比内华达州的赢取概率要好,相比康乃迪克州8.4%的“保留”,拉斯维加斯只有“6.1%”。Schwartz:“拉斯维加斯的老虎机太多了,他们必须 把'保留'降低来吸引顾客”。
对很多人来说,赢钱并不是唯一的目的。事实上,这只仅仅是一种奖励。“主要的方面是乐趣,激动的心情和社交,甚至是这的剧院,”哈里娱乐副总裁Katrina Lane说。那甚至有两个竞争的比赛。这给我们剩下的人带来乐趣--这也是我们在赌场人流量较大的地方放置更多的桌面游戏,而不是老虎机的原因。哈里公司的可视化软件同时也帮助他们找出放置最受欢迎的老虎机的位置,来帮助利益最大化。
世界上可能没有哪个赌场会专门提供一个桌子来玩抛硬币,而且原因很直接:这是一种你赢取概率很不错的赌博方式。研究表明硬币在抛出去之后在着陆时更有可能显示它被抛之前的状态(这和如果你从1开始数,你永远不会数到偶数比奇数多的情况是一个道理)。旋转的硬币更有可能出现“背面”因为“人头“那一面重一些。
不是赌场不想让你赢钱。他们只是想确保你没有作弊--特别是没有违法数学定律。这也是为什么他们用监控摄像头,计算机网络和软件调查很多数据计算出概率,寻找不受欢迎的面孔和不正常的情况。而赌场真正运用到高等数学的地方,是通过计算的方法给挥金如土的阔少爷一点免费的奖励。
Gambling TipsThe odds are you won't make money gambling but there are at least four common betting games at which is it conceivable to reliably make money. Three of them are found in most casinos and the fourth is found throughout life. Most people with a grasp of simple odds do not expect to make a fortune gambling though--it is just a lot more fun if you know the odds on your game.
PokerThe way to win at gambling is know the odds bet big when they edge in your favor and try not to lose much in between. With poker it is not just about the cards but "pot odds"--the cards plus how much you can win and what you have already bet. Play lots since luck is a short-term variation and skill is won over time. Poker has the added advantage of psychology and other players who may not want to work so hard to learn.
BlackjackTheoretically you can memorize every card played in a deck (or six decks depending on how the casino sets things up) and get a small edge on the house. The more 10s face cards and aces left in the deck the better your odds. Robert Hannum a statistician specializing in gambling puts the edge at 1% meaning you can make $1 for every $100 you bet. Yes casinos can do little about it other than kicking you out if they catch you winning too much. They probably like it overall though given the likely number of people who try card-counting and fail.
SportsAnother case of "winning at betting a job you have to love." Over time the right combination of horses can show up or the points against a team are wrong and no one else notices. As with poker blackjack--and for that matter stocks--be wary of outsized jackpots as almost all real mathematical advantages are slight. The advent of in-game bets (the outcome of a quarter a half or even a couple of plays) make the overall math more complex.
What Not to PlayKnowing the odds particularly the overall house edge helps you calculate how long your money will last. It can also make you scratch your head wondering why anyone would risk a buck. The American Gaming Association puts the house edge in blackjack at 0.5% to 1.5% meaning you lose 50 cents to $1.50 on every $100 you wager. That can last a long time. Keno on the other hand has a house edge of up to 30% so you give up $30 on the $100.
State LotteriesForty-one states plus the District of Columbia have lotteries. They may be the only form of gambling that makes Keno look like a good bet. In 2006 only Massachusetts paid out better than Keno's 30% house take (it was 28.1%)。 The 10th-best state Texas kept 40%. By comparison the traditional organized crime game called The Numbers had odds of 1 000:1 and paid off between 600:1 and 800:1. Of course there were no taxes so that is a bigger net gain. "Compares badly to the mob" is not an endorsement.
SlotsTechnology has had more of an effect on slot machines than any other game. The advent of computer chips instead of mechanical wheels meant the owners could offer much more complex games involving diagonal wins betting variations and bonus rounds. The regulated odds however do not change and like any machine-based game will always favor the house. Video poker games tend to pay out better though as do larger-denomination slot machines. The house edge can be anywhere from 0.5% to 12%.
Location Location LocationHow much a slot machine must pay out called the "hold " is set by the state. Casinos are often free however to pay out better. Researcher David Schwartz says that while Connecticut currently has better odds than Nevada: The Las Vegas machines have a hold of 6.1% compared with 8.4% on a Connecticut Indian casino. Says Schwartz: "There are so many more slots in Las Vegas they have to come down to attract people."Mapping the FloorFor most people going to casinos winning isn't everything. In fact it may not be anything more than a nice bonus. "The two main aspects are fun and excitement and socialization even the theater of it " says Katrina Lane vice president of Harrah's. There is even competition when two players are up against each other. That is fun for the rest of us to watch--which is why casinos put table games and not too many slots near places with lots of foot traffic. Harrah's visualization software also figures out where to put the favorite slots to maximize their action.
Coin FlipThere probably is no casino in the word that runs a coin flip table and with good reason: It is one form of gambling where you can get good odds. Research has determined that a coin will more often land showing the side when it is flipped (for the same reason that if you count up from one you will never have more even numbers than odd.) Coins spun tend to show "tails" even more frequently since the "heads" side is heavier.
SecurityIt's not that casinos do not want you to win. They just do not want you to violate any laws--particularly laws of mathematics. That is why they invest so much in cameras networks and software to crunch the odds look for unwelcome faces and unusual situations. That and calculating ways to reward big spenders with free stuff is where the real advanced math takes place in a casino.